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Can the President Control Gas Prices?

gasoline prices
Prices for a gallon of gas have dropped in 2020 because demand has dropped as the coronavirus pandemic surges. Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Critics of any president are quick to blame the commander in chief for things that are totally beyond his or her control. (Of course, presidents and their supporters are equally quick to take credit for things that are beyond their control.) The price of gasoline is a perfect example. Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans took credit for low gasoline prices in 2019 [source: Rainey]. And when George W. Bush was in office, Democrats blamed him for allowing gas prices to rise from $1.45 a gallon on his inauguration day to $4.05 a gallon by June 2008 [source: Thaler].

The truth is that no president — Democrat or Republican, friend of "big oil" or supporter of alternative fuels — can do much of anything to affect the short-term price of oil, and therefore gasoline. The overriding factor that determines the price of oil from day to day is the market principle of supply and demand [source: U.S. Energy Information Administration]. It comes down to simple economics: When demand is greater than supply, prices rise.

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The actual price of a barrel of oil is constantly changing, since oil is a commodity that is traded on the futures market. Buying and selling oil futures is called speculating, because you're making trades based on expectations of future supply and demand.

And for a while, demand was skyrocketing. After the Great Recession ended, demand steadily increased as the global economy recovered and kicked back into high gear. To match that demand, U.S. oil production rose dramatically from around 5,000 barrels a day in 2009 to a record high of 13,100 barrels a day in early 2020 [source: Macrotrends]. Thanks in large part to the drilling technology called hydraulic fracturing (or " fracking"), American oil producers were able to keep pace with demand and keep gasoline prices stable.

Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic slashed global demand and hit the oil and gas industry hard. One upside of the global oil glut is lower gasoline prices at the pump [source: Associated Press].

So if gasoline prices are largely at the mercy of global fluctuations in supply and demand (plus the occasional pandemic), what can a president actually do, if anything, to influence gas prices? Find out next.

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What about increasing the oil supply? Can't the president boost U.S. production? It's true that aggressive increases in U.S. oil production would bring the global supply closer to the demand for oil. Unfortunately, the U.S. is such a small player on the international oil scene — America controls only 4 percent of the world's oil reserves — that even if the U.S. doubl its current production capacity,  still wouldn't make much of a dent [sources: NS Energy and Thaler]. It would also take a number of years to assemble the drilling rigs, pipelines and crew to make that type of production increase, meaning oil prices would be unaffected in the short term.

The only way the president can quickly boost the oil supply to lower gasoline prices is by tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency stockpile of more than 700 million barrels of crude oil stored along the U.S. Gulf Coast (a barrel of oil equals about 159 liters, or 42 gallons). In June 2011, President Obama released 30 million barrels of oil from the emergency reserves in response to crises in Libya and Yemen. President Bush also tapped the reserves in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, temporarily lowering gas prices 10 to 15 percent [source: The New York Times]. Experts agree, however, that these reserves should be used for emergencies only, not employed as temporary relief to market-driven problems.

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For lots more information about energy, alternative fuels and presidential politics, head to the related links that follow.

Originally Published: May 22, 2012

Author's Note: Can the President Control Gas Prices?

While gas prices might be a controversial topic for politicians, it's an easy one for economists. Virtually all economists agree that the U.S. president has very little control over the global price of crude oil, and therefore the local price of gasoline. If we can't rely on our leaders to help lower our fuel costs, we should rely on ourselves. The hard truth is that it's within our power to decrease the amount we spend on gas simply by driving less. I say it's a hard truth, because like most of you I depend on my car for all sorts of "important" things and resist the idea of cutting back. If I could afford a brand-new hybrid, I'd buy one in a heartbeat. In the meantime, the best thing I can do to lower gas prices is to lower the demand, one "staycation" at a time.

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Sources

  • Associated Press. "Gas Prices Fall to $2.25 per Gallon on Average in U.S." Time. Oct. 11, 2020 (Nov. 9, 2020) https://time.com/5899073/gasoline-price-covid-19/
  • Laskoski, Gregg. "The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Won't Help Obama With Gas Prices." U.S. News and World Report. March 21, 2012 (Nov. 9, 2020) http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/on-energy/2012/03/21/the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-wont-help-obama-with-gas-prices
  • Macrotrends. "U.S. Crude Oil Production – Historical Chart." (Nov. 9, 2020) https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart
  • The New York Times Editorial Board. "Tapping the Oil Reserve." June 25, 2011 (Nov. 9, 2020) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/opinion/sunday/26sun3.html?ref=strategicpetroleumreserveus
  • NS Energy. "Top ten countries, with the world's largest oil reserves, from Venezuela to Iraq." Nov. 4, 2020 (Nov. 9, 2020) https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/newstop-ten-countries-with-worlds-largest-oil-reserves-5793487/
  • Rainey, James. "Trump claim credit for cheap gas. Experts say it's not so simple." NBC News. Jan. 2, 2019. (Nov. 9, 2020) https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-claims-credit-cheap-gas-experts-say-it-s-not-n953626
  • Sommer, Jeff. "Gas Price Disparity Seems Here to Stay." The New York Times. March 10, 2012 (Nov. 9, 2020) http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/11/your-money/gasoline-price-disparity-seems-here-to-stay-strategies.html?ref=strategicpetroleumreserveus
  • Thaler, Richard. "Why Gas Prices Are Out of Any President's Control." The New York Times. March 31, 2012 (Nov. 9, 2020) http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/business/gas-prices-are-out-of-any-presidents-control.html
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration. "What's up (and down) with gasoline prices?" February 14, 2012 (May 16, 2012) http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=1&t=10
  • Yetiv, Steve. "Why Obama can't control gas prices." The Christian Science Monitor. April 18, 2012 (Nov. 9, 2020) http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2012/0418/Why-Obama-can-t-control-gas-prices

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